Analysts now believe ANC will postpone the vote to replace Zuma

As the ANC fractures into two very different camps, it seems like the chaos which has plagued the party will severely affect the vote to replace Zuma at December’s elective conference.

Three political analysts have shared their fears over a desperate bid to cling on to power by Jacob Zuma. The ANC is currently divided by staunch pro-Zuma factions, and members who oppose corruption and the president himself.

The fight to replace Zuma

The collective believe that the anti-Zuma factions are rapidly growing in numbers. When the December electives roll round, they expect a ‘humiliating’ defeat for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. She is JZ’s preferred replacement, but people are turning their backs on her by proxy.

Another huge concern follows the barbaric scenes we saw at the Eastern Cape provincial conference this weekend. The meeting descended into farce when chairs were thrown and violence broke out, due to questions over the validity of more local elections.


What the experts say…

Professor Lesiba Teffo:

“It will be a major challenge to make the conference collapse. Not that there won’t be attempts to do that, but it would require a huge effort. The more the ANC keeps Zuma at the helm, the more it will alienate voters. But if they have the courage to recall him, they would be given another chance by the voters.”

Professor Andre Duvenhage:

“It is unlikely that the ANC will have a fair and legitimate conference. It’s likely to degenerate into violence and the process might end up in court. The beneficiaries of any postponement would be the Zuma faction”

Dr Somadoda Fikeni:

“You may have physical fights and accusations of electoral irregularities at the national conference. Should the conference collapse, that would make the recovery of the ANC very difficult towards 2019. In that case voters would see that the ANC is failing to self-correct.”

Local election results are being challenged

When KwaZulu-Natal magistrates ruled the 2015 provincial results ‘null and void’, it opened the door for other provinces to cry foul. Free State PEC Ace Magushale is having his legitimacy challenged, whereas a pro-Sylvia Lucas group in the Northern Cape are talking to lawyer’s regarding the May 2017 provincial election.

Whether it’s legal battles or furniture being flung across a meeting hall, one thing is guaranteed. Zuma’s ANC will not go down without a fight.